February 29, 2004

The Philippine STAR, Opinion Page

A Clear-Majority President

Is Imperative

By Babe Romualdez

The latest Pulse Asia Surveys that revealed GMA overtaking FPJ have created a political confusion.  Pulse Asia said that if the May national elections were held today, it would be a very close fight for the presidency between GMA and FPJ.  It observed that that the contest is between the incumbent President and the movie actor.  It found that there are a large amount of "indecision" prevailing over the country.  With 23 percent of registered voters saying there is a "big possibility" they may change their voting intentions between now and the elections.

Pulse Asia concluded that the results suggest an increasing number of voters are taking on a wait-and-see attitude as the official campaign season unfolds with candidates going on their campaign sorties and disclosing their platforms of action.  The findings on indecision and wait-and-see sentiment, in my view, show what a confusing situation we are in.

Already, FPJ's camp labeled the results as "unbelievable."  FPJ, campaign manager, Tito Sotto, told me that he won't be surprised if Pulse Asia and SWS have been penetrated by manipulators because this is the most unbelievable survey result that he has ever seen.  He added that some quarters were apparently trying to "condition" the people into believing that the presidential race would eventually be won by the President.

On former Sen. Raul Roco's part, he questioned the speed by which the latest Pulse Asia survey results were released to the media.  For him, it was impossible to tabulate and analyze the survey in just three days.  Now comes the January 28-February 6 SWS survey that has FPJ with 37.5 percent trailed by GMA with 28.7 percent.  The spate of surveys leave a wake of confusion and animosity among the contesting camps and the electorate.  If this battle of surveys won't relent, the net effect will be the surveys' loss of credibility in the medium-term.

Even if we assume that the findings are accurate and truly reflective of the people's pulse, the closeness of the figures is very dangerous and explosive.  We need a candidate to surge mightily, in order to become a majority president come May 10.  Failing to do so will only invite turbulence, animosity, violence, and a victor hobbled by doubt and divisiveness.  He or she will not be able to govern effectively.  Sounds more like a victim.

Hopefully, the electorate's decision will give one candidate a clear majority.  A mandate is magical in politics.  And it made all the difference for President Reagan in his early presidency.  Throughout the transition and then in office, Reagan could proclaim that he was the only person in America elected by all the people.  The people had embraced his agenda and now, Congress owed it to the people to enact it.  Mandate in hand, and a Congress ready to work, Reagan was exquisitely poised to lead and hit the ground running in the months that followed.  Something new was in the air.  The notion that no one could govern anymore was then shattered.

That is certainly applicable to us.  The 1992 contest to Malacañang had FVR with a slim plurality of 23.6 percent from a total of 22,654,194 votes cast.  Miriam Defensor-Santiago came second with 19.7 percent followed by Danding Cojuangco, Ramon Mitra, Imelda Marcos and Doy Laurel.  What worked for FVR was the early concessions of defeat by all his opponents, except for Miriam Defensor-Santiago.  She is still contesting the 1992 results today despite the fact that they're both in the same camp now.  From there, FVR had the opportunity to prove himself slowly, yet steadily, through the power crisis, the Mindanao insurgency, and kidnappings before he won the support of the nation when the economy went his way.

In 1998, there was a clear majority.  Erap won a mandate to govern, but he blew the opportunity.  Erap won by a large 39.86 percent from a total of 27,782,735 voters cast.  Joe de V was a far second with 15.87 percent followed by Raul Roco,13.83 percent; Lito Osmeña, 12.44 percent; Alfredo Lim, who still remembers the citizenship disqualification charges filed against him by the cast of characters in Manapat and Andy Fornier, 8.71 percent; and Renato de Villa, 4.86 percent.

After a clear mandate, a vast majority was prepared to give Erap Estrada a chance.  Many recall small Malacañang dinners where former President Joseph Estrada charmed the members of the upper class to the point that they were willing to support most of his pro-poor programs.  On one occasion at the Palace, I recall when Erap charmed former Pres. Cory Aquino, who didn't support him, by personally escorting her to her car and presenting her with a bouquet of roses.  Early on during his term, he had an endearing way of uniting the A, B, C classes with the D and E.  He could have been an effective conduit for national unity.  FPJ's problem today is that the A, B, C classes were traumatized by the Erap experience.  That is why FPJ is finding it difficult to convince them that he will be a unity president.

It is imperative that the "victim" of 2004 wins a clear mandate to govern in order to harness the nation's resources to address the threats of population, poverty, breakdown of law and institutions, and large deficits.  Not to mention, an antiquated constitution that is unfriendly to business and that leaves us unresponsive to globalization, a Supreme Court that is the bane of investors such as Amari, the Manila Hotel deal, PIATCO, and Meralco, and finally, the scandalous pork barrel.

The president with a clear-majority to govern will be able to mobilize the will of the body politic to solve domestic and globalization-caused problems.  More important, it will give people the sense, once more, that someone CAN govern this fractious archipelago.  The presidential historian Henry Adams once wrote that the essence of leadership in the presidency is "a helm to grasp, a course to steer, a port to seek."

Having a firm grasp of that essence, that president can inspire people with confidence in the future.  Only one truly believes in the future will one's followers make the leap to join one.  And one will only believe in oneself if one's mandate to govern is clear.  After all, optimism is contagious from He who has the Mandate of Heaven.  

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Email: babeseyeview@hotmail.com

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